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canada goose coats on sale Can canada goose black friday sale the Italians be serious? That is likely to be the reaction of financial markets and the country euro zone partners as uk canada goose outlet they ponder a disastrous election result, which could reignite the euro crisis. More than half of those who voted chose one of two comedians: Beppe Grillo, who really Canada Goose Parka is a stand up comic; and Silvio Berlusconi, who drove Italy to the edge of the abyss when he was last prime minister in 2011. Both are anti euro populists.
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Canada Goose sale This comedy could easily canadagoosesale.biz end in tragedy. The inconclusive result canada goose uk outlet has echoes of last year first Greek election except that Italy is bigger and more strategic. The country faces political paralysis, while its economy is shrinking and its debt is rising. The European Commission forecast last Canada Goose sale week that GDP would fall a further 1 percent this year after last year 2.2 percent drop. Debt, meanwhile, would reach 128 percent of GDP by the end of this year.
buy canada goose jacket The euro crisis uk canada goose went into remission after the European Central Bank president Mario Draghi promised last summer to do it takes to preserve canada goose the single currency. But, if Italy proves ungovernable during this critical time, even the ECB safety net may not work.
canada goose clearance Investors are already getting nervous. Italian 10 year Canada Goose Jackets bond yields jumped 0.4 percentage points to 4.7 percent on Tuesday morning. Spanish yields also rose 0.2 percentage points to 5.3 percent, in the first sign of contagion. These are, though, admittedly still a far cry from the 7 percent plus yields when the crisis was raging last July.
canada goose black friday sale The risk is not that Berlusconi or Grillo will be prime minister. It is rather than nobody will be able to form a stable government. The electorate split into three roughly equal groups: Berlusconi centre right group, Grillo uncategorisable 5 Star Movement and the centre left coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani. The centrist buy canada goose jacket coalition led by canada goose factory sale Mario Monti, the technocratic who saved Italy from Berlusconi antics but whose austerity canada goose coats policies were deeply unpopular, came a poor fourth.
Italy convoluted electoral system gives the coalition with the largest number of votes an automatic majority in the lower house of parliament. This means Canada Goose Online Bersani will get the first chance to be prime minister, even though his coalition beat Berlusconi only by a whisker.
Canada Goose Outlet However, a different electoral system in the Senate, which canada goose store has equal power as the lower house, means nobody will have a majority there. Bersani will not even be able to form a government in alliance with Monti a scenario which pre election polls had suggested was a likely outcome. At least Greece has only one house of parliament.
canada goose So what happens next? One idea is that Bersani could team up with Berlusconi to form a new grand coalition. This, though, seems unlikely given how they stand for completely opposite policies unless Italy is dragged right to the brink. It also hard to Canada Goose Coats On Sale see who would run such a government. If Monti hadn made the terrible mistake of running in the election, he would have been the natural choice. But his credibility has been buy canada goose jacket cheap shot to bits.
canadian goose jacket Grillo has said he won form a coalition with anybody, so a formal alliance with him isn an option. But Bersani could conceivably try to govern on his own, getting support on a case by case basis from cheap canada goose uk the comedian. That, though, would be a recipe for extremely weak canada goose uk shop government.
Canada Goose Jackets Another canada goose uk black friday option is a fresh election, as there was in cheap Canada Goose Greece last year. Indeed, it hard to Canada Goose Outlet see how a new ballot can be avoided. The snag is that it isn obvious this would resolve the deadlock given that there are three roughly equal forces which don want to work together.
canada goose store Some pundits think a solution could be to change the electoral system. That could conceivably clear away the old political caste, preparing the way for new parties and new leaders such as Matteo Renzi, the young centrist mayor of Florence. But Italy parliament has been debating new voting rules for years without coming to a conclusion and it may find it tough to reach consensus now.
cheap Canada Goose Meanwhile, investors will give their verdict. A key Canada Goose online question is whether Italy can still rely on the ECB support its promise to buy potentially unlimited quantities of sovereign bonds. While this a very powerful drug, it contains important fine print: the ECB will only engage in so called monetary transactions if the country concerned agrees to a reform programme with its euro zone partners.
canada goose coats It is hard canada goose clearance to see Italy being able to sign such a programme without canada goose clearance sale a stable government which means the safety net has holes in it. If investors start thinking this way, bond yields could spiral upwards and capital flight could resume. The prospect of crisis could become a self fulfilling prophecy.
Canada Goose Parka Contagion could return with a vengeance too. Other countries may have more stable governments than Italy. But Spain, Greece and even France share its problems of a shrinking economy, rising debt and increasing popular anger canadian goose jacket against austerity. The longer recession bites, the greater the appeal of populist policies. Investors may worry anew that the race between https://www.canadagoosesale.biz populism and the canada goose coats on sale return of growth will be lost across the euro zone.
canada goose deals A market fright could, of course, restore Italian voters to their senses when and if there a second election. That is what happened in Greece last year. But the next few months could be extremely jumpy and a happy outcome is not sure.
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